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While there has been an ostensible easing of tension across the Taiwan Strait due to concessions the Ma administration has made to China, the People’s Liberation Army’s preparations for war against Taiwan have not slackened. The majority of the Taiwanese people are worried about adverse consequences on their livelihoods of Ma’s policy of rapid economic integration with China. If the Kuomintang pushes the signing of a peace accord with China in the next couple of years, massive, bloody protests could be triggered. Such upheaval could provide the People’s Liberation Army with a pretext to invade Taiwan.
Taiwan is facing double jeopardy: an external military threat from China and internal subversion by the Ma government, which is dominated by radical elements in the KMT who are collaborating with Beijing to steadily demolish Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy.
If Taiwan were to fall to PLA coercion or internal subversion, the United States would suffer a geostrategic disaster. The sea lanes and air space around Taiwan are critical to the survival of Japan and South Korea. Once in control of Taiwan, China would be in position to pressure Japan and South Korea to become its vassal states. Given Japan’s unstable domestic politics and its aversion to nuclear weapons, Japan would likely cave once the credibility of the U.S. as keeper of the peace in East Asian had been lost. With the demise of the U.S.-Japan military alliance, the U.S. would be forced to retreat all the way back to Hawaii.
As the new hegemon of Asia, China would be able to requisition Japan’s considerable financial and technological resources to build up its wealth and military power. With the combined strength of the world’s second and third largest economies, it would not be unrealistic for China to aspire to replace the United States as the world’s greatest superpower.
The late Congressman Gerald Solomon once said Taiwan’s security is ultimately America’s security. We urge President Obama to undertake a deep and comprehensive review of our policy regarding Taiwan’s future.
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